At present, it is a critical period for spring cultivation and fertilizer preparation, but from the current situation of fertilizer preparation, the market rhythm is slower than in previous years. At the present stage, monoammonium, diammonium market mixed, although the short-term raw material cost support has been enhanced, but supply and demand is still an important factor affecting the late trend of phosphate fertilizer market. After entering March, with the pace of spring plowing and fertilizer preparation gradually accelerated, will the market demand flourish? Where will phosphate fertilizer market go again?
Demand is not prosperous, an ammonium market down
Recently, the new ammonium market transactions are few, enterprise inventory pressure is prominent, negative factors dominate, the market price center of gravity has moved down, the price in the mainstream area fell about 50 yuan/ton. In terms of price, the ex-factory quotation of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei region is 3250 yuan/ton, the ex-factory quotation of 55% ammonium powder in Sichuan region is 3200 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory quotation of 55% ammonium powder in Yunnan region is 3150 yuan/ton.
In terms of demand, although the market of compound fertilizer has improved recently, the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises lack confidence in monoammonium, and the previously purchased monoammonium is still in stock. Under the circumstance that the demand has not improved significantly, the enterprises are not willing to purchase raw materials in the short term, and the main demand is replenishment. Henan region a phosphate fertilizer sales person told reporters, the current downstream market start more slowly, the market wait-and-see attitude is obvious. In order to stimulate market demand, prices in some areas gradually fell to the cost line, and traders' willingness to sell at lower prices also increased, resulting in a relatively chaotic market price. Short-term monoammonium market price is still likely to continue to decrease slightly, and the overall market demand needs to be improved. In the later stage, we should focus on changes in cost end, downstream procurement and export.
On the supply side, due to weak demand and increasing pressure on factory inventory, last week, the overall production and operating rate of ammonium enterprises continued to decline slightly, with an average operating rate of about 54.14%, down 0.25% week on week.
Disk stable operation, diamonium quote firm
Diamammonium, the reporter learned that at present, the high content of diamammonium supply is tight, the price is high and stable, but the overall demand of the market performance is general, the trading is relatively quiet, most factories suspend quotation and order. Specific price point, Hubei area 64% diamonium mainstream factory quotation in 3800 yuan/ton, Gansu area 64% diamonium mainstream factory quotation in 3900 yuan/ton. Although the demand for diamonium may not increase significantly in the short term, with the passage of time, the time for spring tillage and fertilizer preparation is shortened, the demand for diamonium is still expected to increase. Export, enterprises mainly supply the domestic market, export demand is difficult to form a positive in the short term. Overall, the recent stable operation of diamonium market, the follow-up focus on the demand for spring farming.
In terms of supply, diamonium enterprises continued to rise as a whole, with an average operating rate of about 62.48% and weekly production of about 277,200 tons, an increase of 0.400 tons on a weekly basis.
Support increased, the cost of a steady rise
In addition to the impact of demand, the most direct factor affecting the price of phosphate fertilizer is the price of raw materials. Recently, the price of phosphate ore, sulfur and synthetic ammonia has been firm and rising, and the comprehensive cost has increased, strengthening the cost support of phosphate fertilizer.
At present, the price of domestic sulfur is mixed, the average price of domestic fixed sulfur is 1226 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton week on week, and the average price of domestic liquid sulfur is 1047 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton week on week. Port spot price continues to rise, Yangtze River port granular sulfur mainstream reference price at 1300 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week on week; Recently, the price fluctuation of phosphate ores has been widely concerned by the industry. Since mid-February, the trading price of phosphate ores in Guizhou has increased by nearly 70 yuan/ton. The market trend has been improving, which has brought certain support to the price rise of phosphate fertilizer. At present, the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore carboard in Guizhou area is 980~1100 yuan/ton, the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore carboard in Hubei area is 1035~1045 yuan/ton, and the reference quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore in Yunnan area is 1050 yuan/ton and above. The supply of phosphate ore resources is tight, and the price will remain high in the short term. In terms of liquid ammonia, the market price is stable and rising. As of the end of last week, the average price of liquid ammonia was 4270 yuan/ton at the factory, and the price of liquid ammonia in main producing areas was 4050~4200 yuan/ton.
In general, the recent demand for phosphate fertilizer is relatively weak, supported by the cost side, short-term phosphate fertilizer prices will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range, it is difficult to decline significantly, but the follow-up still need to pay attention to the progress of the spring farming market and export situation. (Source: China Agricultural Media)